Today bitcoin traded within cents of the 2015 highs. On OKCoin we rallied to $320.93, only 25 cents from the $321.18 high. We are currently quoted at $319.38 dollars per coin, very close to the highs. On rival exchange BTC-E the gains have been smaller. A high of $311.89 was hit earlier in the day, several dollars below the 2015 high at $318. We are currently trading at $304.68 on this exchange.
BTC-E is the exception here as most USD exchanges are trading around $316 to $319 dollars per coin. The usual price differential between BTC-E and the rest of the market is in the $2-$3 dollars range.
Futures continue to march higher unabated. The far-out December 25th contract hit a high of $347.00 today and is currently quoted at $345.22. This is almost $26 dollars above the spot USD exchange and a $22 dollars above OKCoin’s Bitcoin Futures Index. Like we mentioned yesterday, considering historical standards this is a high premium.
It will be interesting to see where futures trade tomorrow after the Friday settlement process. Due to the large volatility this week, it’s possible that there may be some clawback on winning traders. During the summer Litecoin rally futures traded at a large premium to spot prices all the way to expiration. At the time this was somewhat perplexing because the Index was quoting lower prices, but after the settlement clawed back over 50% of winnings, it became clear why futures stayed high.
Note that back then Litecoin rallied several-fold and then fell over 50 percent from the highs. I’m not suggesting that we will see a 50% clawback in bitcoin futures. The moves in bitcoin have been much smaller. But after Friday’s settlement, it will be easier to deduce how much of the large premium is due to the potential for a clawback and how much is it due to forecasting future BTC gains.
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