It only took 10 months but bitcoin finally got back to its January 1st high. Today we broke the previous highs on all major bitcoin exchanges. On BTC-E we rallied to $321.77, above the previous yearly high at $318. We are currently quoted at $313 flat on this exchange. On OKCoin USD spot we surged to $344.95 today. From here we fell over $30 dollars to a low of $314.35. Prices are trading at $329.25 on OKCoin. Most USD exchanges are quoting $329 dollars while most CNY sites are around 2,230 Yuan ($250 US dollars). You can find live quotes from all major exchanges on this LINK.
But the real action happened in bitcoin futures, as usual. Prodded by large gains on the Chinese exchanges, OKCoin futures surged higher today. The December 25th contract hit a high of $381 dollars flat. From here we fell a massive $54 dollars to a low of $327.50, only to rally back up to $357.56, where we are currently trading at. The 4 hour chart above shows this month’s rally on the Dec25 contract. Notice how before the large crash the gains went parabolic.
Today’s large crash from the highs signals that prices may have overextended, at least on the short-term. A period of some consolidation may follow. But this is far from a sure bet. As we can see on the chart above few days ago we had a similarly sized $50 dollars retracement on the December 25th contract, followed by another leg higher.
The trend is still up and a decisive break above today’s high at $345 (OKCoin) may lead to more gains. To end the uptrend, the bears will need to push bitcoin below $260 on BTC-E and $264 on OKCoin. Given that BTC-E is trading over $16 dollars below most USD exchanges, in these circumstances it’s best to give priority to price action on OKCoin. You can find a live spot USD chart HERE.
Close to current prices we find some support at the previous yearly highs $321 (OKCoin) and $318 (BTC-E). But because this level didn’t get much respect today, better levels may be the daily lows at $314 (OKCoin) and $300 (BTC-E). A clean move below the round $300 figure may usher in a period of consolidation.
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